Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas folks! š
I received a nice Seasonās Greetings email from my alma mater Cass Business School (now renamed1 to Bayes Business School2) and my heart thanked whoever came up with the idea for handing me the perfect intro for this issue. š
š” Critical Thinking
How evidence works
In the previous issue I introduced Bayes' Rule, which can be boiled down to an equation between two pairs of multiplied probabilities. As noted, we wonāt be getting into calculations; weāll be learning how to leverage Bayesian inference without needing to use any numbers.
Now weāll look a bit into how evidence actually works, and how we can / canāt use it.
āā
Every day we face uncertain situations that require us to create a theory about reality. To determine if these theories are accurate, we search for evidence.
Hereās an example of a small everyday situation youād do this for:
theory: you think going for a run every morning will help you be more productive
observation: you go for a run and then are very productive that day
conclusion: your higher productivity is evidence that proves your theory
Such conclusions are wrong. ā
To see why, we must first understand how evidence actually works.
We tend to think of evidence in terms of two extremes ā it either proves a theory true, or it proves it false. But, evidence doesn't confirm theories with absolute certainty.
You can almost never use evidence to become 100% certain that a theory is true or untrue.
Evidence only tells you whether the theory is more or less likely to be true, compared to how true you thought it was before you encountered the evidence.
Read that one again! ā
As such, in the example above, the observed higher productivity levels do not necessarily mean the theory about morning runs is correct. Of course, they also donāt necessarily mean itās false either. But how do we interpret the (relative) strength of evidence in this example?
In the next issue, weāll look into this with another important concept - the Question of Evidence. ā
š¶ Music & Art
Iāve been unable to stop listening to this 80s hard rock classic the past few days.3
And even if rockās not your thing, I encourage you to watch the music video to get that glam blast from the past. š
As always, if you have any songs that you canāt stop listening to these days, esp. in languages other than English, please reply and let me know! š
š³ Random Rabbit Hole
I always wondered where the name for Boxing Day, the 2nd Christmas holiday on December 26 in the UK (and some Commonwealth countries), came from. Funnily enough, in all these years of making silly jokes about there not being much boxing š„ on that day4, no one else ever seemed to know where the name came from either.
So this time I actually googled it (š¤¦āāļø) and the term goes back to the 18th century, about which the Oxford English Dictionary says "traditionally on this day tradespeople, employees, etc., would receive presents or gratuities (a "Christmas box") from their customers or employers." š¦
The term āChristmas boxā dates back another century in Britain and seems to have meant a gratuity given at Christmas, to those who had rendered some sort of services for someone but had not been directly paid.
So, itās about boxing, not boxing, if you get my drift.
ā Random Fellow Writer
followed me the other day.5 Her bio made me chuckle, so I thought why not follow her back and read her last post.6In it she talks about her recent stay in Tulsa and provides a list of places to visit and eat at in her own voice. When looking to visit new cities I always look for guide blogs (preferably from a local) with this kind of authentic voice so I appreciated it.
Now will I be visiting Tulsa anytime soon? Hell no (sorry not sorry America), but at least I now know thereās more to Tulsa than being, as the dearly departed f.r.i.e.n.d of millions of us said, the āParis of Oklahomaā.
š Devilās Word of the Week
Christmas, n. ā A day set apart and consecrated to gluttony, drunkenness, maudlin sentiment, gift-taking, public dulness and domestic misbehavior.
What! not religious? You should see, my pet, On every Christmas day how drunk I get! O, I'm a Christian - not a pious monk Honors the Master with so dead a drunk.
Donāt hesitate to let me know which of the sections above you really liked/disliked, or what else youād like to see here, by commenting below or replying to this email.
And as a reminder, if you decide to subscribe and donāt see a welcome email in your inbox, please check your spam/junk folder and mark this SPAM as ānot spamā. š
Enjoy the rest of your holidays peeps!
Prince š¦
ā¦ And if it wasnāt your cup of tea but know a friend who likes this kind of, erm, tea(?), please consider sharing :)
I, and the wide majority of alumni, do not agree (a story for another day) or care about the rename - itās Cass forever.
The plot thickens š
Trivia for rock/metal fans: this is the 1983 re-release version; in the 1981 version, the track (and its eponymous album) had the slightly different name of Breakinā the Chains.
Itās actually a day chock full of football ā½
Would like to know from whereā¦
Not a low bar; I rather despise people with no sense of humour.
Loved the Boxing day trivia, and the thought of a Random Trivia section where you do the hard work of answering questions I have had forever, but been too lazy/busy/occupied to actually look up.
Beautifully written. Thanks for the boxing day trivia, we were so wrong about it.